Markets & Risk Education
Using statistics to review a trading journal honestly
GOSPELTRADER Markets Desk · 25 September 2026 · 7 min read
Quick answer
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). A positive figure over a large sample suggests an edge; fewer than about 100 trades rarely tells you much. This is educational material, not trading advice.
Educational content only — not investment advice. A journal is a dataset, and the same rules apply as in any research: define the variables, collect consistently, and distrust small samples.
Five numbers to compute
- • Win rate: winning trades ÷ all trades.
- • Average win and average loss, in account currency or R-multiples.
- • Expectancy per trade, using the formula above.
- • Maximum drawdown: the largest peak-to-trough fall in the equity curve.
- • Longest losing streak: plan your risk so you can survive twice this.
Sample size and luck
Twenty trades with a 70% win rate is consistent with a coin-flip process more often than people expect. Treat early results as hypotheses and keep risk small until the sample grows.
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